The chilling emotions in Friday allowed the oil prices slight fall, helping to the dollar once again. In the morning hours of today trading day, the crude oil had a trade on levels $129 per barrel. On Monday will be announced the values of the leading indices expected around -0.1%.

The euro had a top-limit trades, when the consumer prices for Germany came out with a better result - 0.9% against 0.7%, however the euro did not succeed to keep the positions it gained due the USA economical data, keeping only high trade against the EUR/JPY at levels 169.

The Japanese yen has lost ground against the majority of the currencies, when the investors came out with intensified appetite for risk positions thanks to the positive US banks data, coming out with better values than expected. Monday is a national holiday and the markets will remain closed. The British pound had a trade mainly in range due the American power data and the rumors for good news to happen with the Government public credits.

The economical data were relatively positive with the initial housing over a million - 1,066 against than the predicted value of 0.960. The weekly job requests went up a bit over the expectations for 360K and reched 366K. The Euro consolidated the losses, trading in range, with a pressure coming out from the falling crude oil prices and combined with the lack of important economical data for the European union.
Today, from the economical calendar will be shown the Index of the production prices for Germany expected to be 0.7% and the trade balance for the European Union expected to be around 0.9 billion euros.

In the GBP market there was no data of a great influence and the currency had a range trade around the psychological level of 2.0000. today the attention will fall on the loans in the public sector that are awaited to be around 7.4 billion. The Japanese Yen had a hard trade when the carry trade deals got back to life on a base of positive movements on the stock market. All crosses made a profit especially on the GBP/JPY. In total, the yen got a trade of 104.76 in the bottom and 107.11 at the top before closing the NY session at 106.25.

Looking ahead we expect the data for the weekly labor petitions expected on 380K after the sudden fall to 346K. The Philadelphia index would be -15 for July after its fall to 17.1 in June. The Euro sympathized the crude oil and the gold, however the mood went a little depressive when the economical conditions continuously have been going worse. The consumer prices index has been confirmed on 4% annual basis. Today will be announced the data for the manufacture in the housing sector with previous values of 0.8% monthly and -2.4 annual basis.

The Japanese Yen succeed to win solid advantage when the European stocks had a low trade, however the positive USA data turned them back. EUR/JPY had a trade of a weekly bottom of 165.35.

PPI consumer prices index with expectations to raise up to 1.3% which is slightly above this from May (1,4%), while the core PPI will reach 0.3% against 0.2% in May. The attention will be provoked the annual report for the first half of the year. The report will be presented by the president of the US Federal reserve - Ben Bernanke in front of the Senate regarding the monetary policy. influence on the market will have the retail sales with expected levels of 1,0% against 1,2% due the previous month.
The euro succeed to stop the fall against the greenback caused by the rescue plan for Freddie Mac and Fannie May and to focus on the statement of FDIC wrom were leaked some rumors that more banks in USA is expected to fall. The Industrial production for May showed weak data (-1.9%) confirming the slow down of the Euro zone. In the calendar will be presented also the German ZEW index that is expected to come up to -55,0. For June this index has value of -52.4. In addition will be released the data for for the French recurring account and the Italian index of the consumer prices for the month and annually. The values we prognose are as follows: 0,4% monthly and 3,8% annually and the values will not have significant change.

The British pound took advantage from the weakness of the dollar during the US market session and passed the psychological bareer of 1.9900. The production prices came a bit lower than expected - 2.1% against 2.6%, giving advantage for harder statements from BoE regarding the future interest rates. Kate Barker, a member of BoE said that the Central Bank is concerned, holding the interest rates too tight, weakening the economy more than necessary. The economical calendar will show the consumer trust index predicting 0.4% against the 0.6% in May, however on an annual basis the index is expected to jump to 3.6% against 3.3%. In the same time in albion is expected the main consumer prices index, which will remain the same on annual basis.

The Japanese yen lost all positions against the dollar. The EUR/JPY went away from the new year top position to 169.67 during the Asian session with the fall of EUR/USD. BOJ announced their decision for the interest rates keeping them on unchanged to 0.5% as expected.

The JPY could suppress the dollar, influenced by the low Dow Jones trade at levels around 11 000. After the monthly report of BoJ is not expected a change in the interest rates, however there will be a search for measures in order to protect themselves from the rising oil prices and the energy. The data announced in the economical calendar for the industrial production again shown slight fall to 2.8% for the previous period and expected value of 2.9%. The consumer trust went to a bottom record due June - 32.6%.

The British pound realized solid gains against the dollar, but reduced the drill against the euro favor level to 0.8000. The market is still arguing which would be the next step of the UK Central bank and would they raise the interest rates in order to hold the inflation mantained or will lower them to stimulate the economy. The economica calendar for Monday is offering the exit level production prices, for which is expected a raise to 1.2% from 1,6% due May and the production prices on the enty are 2,5% against 3.8%.

The economy calendar has been presented by the weekly jobless claims, that have shown incredibly good progress and decreased to 364K against the previous 404K from week earlier. Today will be interesting the July Consumer Sentiment expected 55.5 slightly weaker then 56.4 in June, which is historically low and the expectations are for another decrease, and the trade balance of USA is expected to become -62.5 billion against -60.9billions. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 22 points (1.03%) and the Dow Jones was up 81 points (0.73%). Crude Oil closed up $5.25 ending the New York session at $141.30 per barrel.
Euro gave some steps back against the greenback as a result of the decreased growth in the French and the Italian manufacture, however lately rebound its positions thanks to the statements of the Federal Reserve and the Central European Bank. The economy calendar for today will show the German wholesale prices and we expect fall to 1,0% on monthly basis and slight raise of the annual value - up to 8,9% against the previous values, that are respectively 1,4%/m and 8.1%/y.

The British pound (GBP) had a volatile day against the major currencies as the UK Central Bank left the interest rates to 5.00% even after the growth of the inflation. The bad fundamenthal data continued to supress the economy causing speculations for fall of the interest rate very soon. The data shown by the night confirmed the fears regarding the bad situation with the housing sector in UK. Halifax index went down 2%, overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9712 and a high of 1.9839 before closing the day at 1.9780 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) received a major boost from the strong Employment change figures for May coming in at +29.8K beating expectation of +10K and negating the -25K in April. The Unemployment Rate also decreased from 4.3% to 4.2% which along with soaring commodities allowed the Aussie to regain the 0.9600 level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9545 and a high of 0.9640 before closing the day at 0.9620.

The Euro reached a two week bottom against the dollar after mass sales of crude oil and the emotionless comments of the Central European Bank - Trichet regarding the interest rates. Pressure over the European currency and discourage of the investors have been provoked by the weak data for the industrial manufacture of Germany that made a fall to -2,4% for May when there was a decrease with 0,2% for April. Except the mentioned data there will be no more news from the Eurozone.

The GBP had a quite volatile day. Strong pound sales started right after the beginning of the Asian foreign exchange session however the losses of the GBP reached a new top after the release of the weak industrial and fabric manufacture of the United Kingdom as both of the factors were disappointingly weak against the preliminary expectations. The focus will fall on todays housing prices index and our prognoses are for decrease to 3,3% against the previous of 4,9% with a great chance this to cause new pressures over the pound related to the rest of the currencies on the market.

The British pound, following the united currency, came out of the range trade as well, making a loss to 0,1% against the previous 0,2% on monthly basis and -0,7% against 0,2% on annual basis.

The JPY had a weak trade as well, provoked by the US national celebrations of 4th of July on Friday. The data that have been announced shown the leading indicators on 40.0th and matching on 33.3. The minister of economy Ota said that the high oil prices and the slowing USA economy have direct influence on the Japanese economy.

The euro suffered the biggest loss against the euro since two months after the neutral comments of the European Central Bank president. When the interest rate was increased to 4.25% against 4.00% the investors have been waiting for a slight note for upcoming raise, however Trichet announced that the European Central Bank do not have plans for second future increase. The economy data for the eurozone shown increase of the retails sales from 0.6% in april to 1.2% in May. Today we are waiting for the data related to the industrial orders with expectations for rise from -1.8% to 0.7%.

The GBP got pressure on it’s back when the PMI services index resulted in a bottom value not seen for 6 years and half. The value is 47.1 much below the expected 49.5.

The Japanese yen had a volatile day as well when the profits on the USD/JPY have been blocked by the sales in EUR/JPY. The weak recuperation of the stock markets was as a favor for overpassing those current lacks of interest in risk investments.

The data from the Eurozone increased the expectations for further push up of the interest rates by the European Central Bank when it came evident that the index of the manufacturing prices giving information for the inflation level has raised with more than expected - up to 1,2% on monthly and 7,1% on annual basis. This is 18 years top shot and the market players did not fall in their re-positioning in state of waiting for today’s European Central Bank decision, however the focus of the attention will fall on the press conference on which the president of the bank Trichet will give today.

In UK the construction PMI has fallen to a new bottom record for the last 11 years when reached levels of 38.8 with expectations of 43.1. In other data the incomes from the housing building reached it’s bottom level of year 2001.

The British pound is moving up to higher values against the dollar during yesterday’s European session. The GBP tested the zone around $1,9950 and lately found supporter levels of $1,9800. This is the biggest jump of the currency since 2008 of April. The data that was announced from the UK is pointing that the Internal Gross Product of the country has grown with 0,3% on a monthly basis differently than the previous values of 0,4% from the past month. This is a indication for slowed down economical growth of the Island. The data for today will show also the new values of the housing price index and the expectations are for -0,9% against the -2,5% on monthly basis, as well the CIPS index in the scope of the manufacture, that will probably note a slight decrease to 49,0 against the previous value.

The economy calendar for today will show the Chicago business activity index for June and our expectations are for slight fall to 48,4 against 49,1 from the previous week. The euro may find support in his growth that coincides by the speculations that the report today will note higher levels of inflation caused by the record high oil prices and the consumer goods. This will give a possibility to the European Central Bank in increasing the interest rate later this year. The index of the harmonized consumer prices for the eurozaone, that will be announced today is expected to be 3,9% against the 3,6% for May and the goal of the European Central Bank is to keep the index on levels of 2%.

The British pound reached one of its lowest values since month against the euro when the government report announced data for lower economy growth than announced for the first quarter, however, later on the GBP succeeded to made a slight jump up against the dollar. Today in UK will be announced the data for the approved mortgage requests. This index probably will note a fall to 49K against the previous 58K, as well the index for monetary offer. For this index we’re experiencing slight fall to 0,4% on a monthly basis against the previous 0,6%.

Unsurprisingly the euro kicked new weekly top, when the petrol passed $140 per barrel and the gold made a rally passing over $910 per 1/3 ounce. In the business calendar for today will be announced the consumer trust for the eurozone for which we expect slight decrease to -16 against the previous -15 for June. The retails sales for germany will be shown as well and our expectations are for value of 0.5%.

The British pound noted new raise against the greenback due yesterday’s session. Today from the Island will be announced the data for the Internal Gross Product final value for the first quarter. We expect that the value for this index will be 0.4% on a monthly basis and 2,5% per year  against the previous results which are the same. The current bill for the first quarter is expected to raise the deficit to -12.1 billion pounds against the previous -8,5 billion pounds. This most probably will decrease the speed of the GBP raise.

In a medium period it is possible that the greenback make new fall against the major currencies since the US Federal Reserve didn’t give clear data for aggressive series of interest rates lowering. The economy calendar for today’s USA actual state will show the data for the weekly unemployment requests, for which we expect a fall to 375K against the 381K from the past month as well the final data for the Internal Gross Product of the country for the first quarter for which we expect to receive new value of 1,0% against the previous 0,9%. Interest will cause the indicator for the first quarter’s consumer expenses and our expectations are for preservation of the same value of 2,1%
The euro made increase on the go against the greenback with almost a cent and half thanks to the decision of the US Federal Reserve for preservation of the interest rates. Earlier today the president of the European central Bank Jan-Claude Trichet made a statement that even after the expected raise of the interest rates on the upcoming institution meeting scheduled on 3th of July it is not  clear whether the increase of the interest rate is appropriate tool for maintaining the monetary policy.

The economical events from the eurozone will be presented by the monetary offer index for which we expect to came out with values of 10,5% against 10,7%
Икономическите събития за днес от еврозоната  ще бъдат представени от показателя за паричното предлагане, който очакваме да излезе със стойност от 10,5% спрямо предходните 10,7%.

The economy calendar from today will be represented by the data for the long-time use commodities. For May we expect slight increase of this index to 0,1% against the negative -0,5% and the orders for long-time use commodities without the automotive scope will be lowered to -0,7% against the previous 2,5%. Interesting will be the index for the housing sector - sales of new homes for May, that will make a decrease to 0,512 billion euro against the 0,526 from the past month. This will result most probably negative on the greenback. The raise of the market volatility will cause the decision of USA’s FOMC for the interest policy, as the expectations of the market players is for preservation of the main percent - 2,0%.

The euro was suppressed against the major currencies when the price of the oil crushed and the strong sales of the Swiss franc toke advance. Today we expect the data for the German PPI index which is expected to be around 0.9% against the previous 1,1%.
The British pound received massive support with the retail sales that reached a top record - 3.5% on a monthly basis when the previous month have fallen to -0.3% and the expectations were for -0.1% which is a good sign that the British consumer is much more resistant than expected. In case that the consumers continue to maintain the same level of expenses the UK Central Bank may raise the interest rates.

The euro again succeeded to gain some positions against the dollar as a result for the crude oil raise. The economy calendar for today is poor on events and will be presented on unemployment levels of Italy, for which we expect to be left without a change on 6,1%. Today will be announced the decision of the Swiss Central bank regarding the interest policy for which we expect preservation of the interest rate to 2.75%.
In absolute synchrony with the rest of the currencies made a jump against the greenback due the yesterday’s session. From the report of the UK Central Bank became clear that the bank has voted for preservation of the rate with 8:1 votes and also that the inflation fears have been entered in the discussion and the bankers have noted possibility of raise in the retail sales rates for May. For them we’re waiting for some shrink of the negative value to 4,2% and this will be most probably supportive for the pound against the rest of the currencies.

The Japanese yen had a heavy trade kicking a bottom of 107.61 before going to the top again lately with monetary value of 108.39, finishing the trade session on levels around 108.00. Early today was announced report from the Japanese bank meeting on which there were raised some concerns from the global inflation expectations.

The economy calendar for today will be quite abundant. From the eurozone interest will cause the data for the trade ballance as the expectations are for fall of the deficit to -1,5 billion euro against the previous -2,3 billion. From Germany will be announced the ZEW index for economy expectations with approximate fall to -42,5 against the previous value of -41,4 as well the ZEW index of the current conditions, for which is also expected decrease to 37,2 against the 38,6 and this will most probably result negatively on the united currency.
The economical events from Great Britain will be announced from the consumer prices index for which we predict shrink to 0,4% against the 0,8% from the past month, and on annual basis the difference will be 3,3% against 3,0%.

The overseas news will be presented by the inflation index for US consumer prices for which is expected growth to 1,0% against the 0,2% on monthly basis and respectively 6,7% vs. 6,5% previous value. In addition, in the spotlights will be seen the data for the housing sector concerning the construction permissions, for which the prognosis is for 960K decrease against 978K, as well as the index of the initial house building for which we estimate fall from 1032 000 to 950K. Today will be announced the industrial manufacture index which will probably make a growth to 0,2% against the previous negatives of -0,7%.

The beginning of the trade week started with slight advance for the euro, the Swiss franc and the British pound against the greenback, however the dollar succeed to take advantage over the Japanese yen as a result of the fall in the Asian stock market.

The economy calendar from the eurozone for today will show the final value of the harmonized index for the consumer prices for May, as our expectations is for raise of 0,6% against the previous 0,3% and the index for the annual basis is prognosticated to keep the same rate of 3,6%. The pure value of the index probably will make a raise to 1,8% against the previous 1,6%.

From Canada will be released the sales of new automobiles, for which we expect raise to levels of 0,4% against the previous negative -0,5% that will be supportive for the Canadian money.

Increase of the market volatility will cause the Empire State manufacturer index, for which we expect fall of the negative value to -1,4 against -3,2 as well as the statement of Bernanke - the US Federal Reserve president that is scheduled lately today.

The data for the mortgage refinance will be interesting and we’re expecting fall to -15,1% against the previous value of -15,3%. The report from the “brown book” will be interesting as well.

To the end of the week USA will announce the data for the retails sales, for which we expect raise to 0,6% against the previous value of -0,2%. The retails sales excluding the auto contracts are expected to raise up to 0,7% against the previous 0,5%. On Thursday rise of the market volatility will be caused by the inflation index of the consumer prices, for which we expect increase to 0,3% against 0,1% from the past month.

The British pound in accordance with the rest of the major currencies lost positions against the greenback. Today the data from the economy calendar for the Island are promising interesting data. The focus of our attention will fall on the new value of the trade balance for the country, for which the prognosis is for increase of the deficit to -7,50 billion pounds against the 7,43 billion as well as to the unemployment levels for the country - 2.5% are expected that is the same value from the past month.

In the economical news the index for the upcoming housing sales for April came stronger than expected - 6.3% that supported the greenback. For today the calendar does not have significant information excluding the data for the Trade balance of USA for which we predict expansion to -59.5 billion dollars.

The euro had a volatility trade testing new monthly pics in the beginning of the European trade session, before the strong data of USA and the positive comments that gave strong support. Today from Europe will be presented the data for the industrial manufacturing in France with expected value - 0.3%.

The British pound had positive day with the index of the consumer prices showing the fastest growth since 1986, bringing back the inflation fears due concerns that the manufacturers will continue with the increase of the prices.

The JPY had a wide sell and the pair USD/JPY made a rally, the euro made a new breakthrough over 167.00 yen per euro.

Today the economy calendar for USA will release the new data for the initial housing, that is expected to be slightly increased - 217K against the expected 213 900.

In the eurozone, the industrial production in Germany have fallen to -0.8% against the expectations for 0.2% on a monthly basis and 4.3% against 6.3% on an annual basis.

Interesting will be the data for the April’s trade balance for Germany, for which we’re prognosticating fall from 16.7 to 15.6 billion euros.

The British pound went up against the US dollar when it was supported on levels of $1.9535. The lira has gained benefit too, adding new positions to the ones already gained, thanks to the disappointing data from USA economy.

During this business week the data from United Kingdom will most probably keep signalizing for housing market and production scope weakening. This should reflect to the labor market as well. The RICS index for the housing prices will most probably continue to fall, the industrial manufacture is expected to keep the same rate. However, the main reason for preservation of the interest rate by UK Central  Bank is the pressure from the  rising prices in the economy that will be identified by the PPI index for which we expect to raise significantly.

The calendar for Japan is full with important economical data, including the decision for the interest rates as well as the expected improvements in the machine manufacture orders and the internal gross product. Most probably this data will be encouraging, however there are some doubts that this will lead to increase of the interest rates. The Central Bank will most probably leave the current levels at 0.5%.

The Euro has been initially traded on weekly bottoms due the strong data coming from the US economy, however this changed to turnover effect when the comments of the european Central Bank president came out when the market players have realized that there is chance for the increase of the interest rates index due the next month. This most probably will “nail” the inflation expectations for the Eurozone. In his statement, Trichet announced that will act in appropriate and timely manner. Today from the Eurozone we expect the data for the industrial production, for which we await a raise to 0.2%.

The British pound has a week bottom trade just like the euro, before the announce of the UK Central Bank statement that will keep the interest rates at the same level of 5.0% that helped the recuperation of the currency prolonged by the “rally” in the euro.

The Japanese yen has a heavy trade when key levels of resistance have been overpassed and the capital markets made a good raise. The pair EUR/JPY went to a destination that was quite favorable for the euro, as breaked the key level of 165,00 and made a new pick for this year.

The euro went back with almost a cent and half against the dollar and approximately 50 points against the GBP during the yesterday’s session, when after the floating mixed data the market players were more insisting. The data for the unemployment in Germany for May showed 15 years bottom of 7.9%, however the change came up quite surprising when the index showed increase of the petitions for unemployment help for first time since January 2006 and this data succeed in surprising the investors. Today from the Eurozone will be released the data for the level of unemployment as we expect the index to remain unchanged and the inflation index for the harmonized index of the consumer prices for which the expectations are directed to 3,6% against the previous of 3,3%.

The British pound could regain after the fall during the European stock session, when the announcement of the data for the housing sector came up much weaker than expected. The national index of the builders shrink to -2.5% in May and the housing prices drop with 4.4% year early. For the moment the housing sector remains a weak node in the chain of UK economy.

Today the economy calendar of USA will release the preliminary Internal Gross Product of the country for the first quarter, as the expectations are directed to raise of 0,9% against the previous 0,6%, that most probably will support the greenback during the session today, as well as the weekly unemployment requests, that we expect to reach 370K against the previous 365K.

In the Euro zone the biggest challenge for the European Central Bank will be the stability of the prices, due the decrease in the economy growth speed. The recurring balance has been announced yesterday and it has reached a new bottom record -15.3 billion euro, after the strong currency has affected negatively on the export. The increase of the German index for consumer prices to 0.6% on monthly basis is a sign that the inflation is the major problem, however the market has been concentrated on the fall of the gold and crude oil prices and this pushed the euro to a new bottom. Today will be released the change in the labor occupancy for Germany which value is expected to kick levels of -25K against -7K from the previous month, which would pressure on the euro once again.

The Japanese Yen was exposed to mass sell trades and the pair USD/JPY again tested the zone around 105,00 due the good data from USA.

The British pound was following the euro in his way down in the European session, however succeeded to get on it’s feet with a cross buy against the EUR and the JPY. Today interest will be the national index for the housing prices, for which we expect to reach value of -0,5% on monthly basis against the previous -1,1% as well the CBI ballance of the retail sales for May, as our prognoses are focused on value -19 against previous -26.

The euro maintained a short range, but received support from the rising oil prices. Today will be announced the data for the total Internal Gross Product of Germany for the first quarter, for which is expected to keep the same rate of 1,5% on monthly and 2,6% on annual basis, as well as the GFK index for the consumer trust, expected with a slight fall to 5,7 against 5,9 from the previous month.

In conditions of relatively calm trading market, the GBP was exposed to a range trade as well, since the markets in UK and in USA remained close for the holidays. Today will be announced the data for BBA’s approved mortgage credits.

The pairs that made significant movements during the session are AUD/USD and NZD/USD, as both of them are attactive high-value currencies at the moment. NZD/USD made a pick of 79.16, and AUD/USD reached 0.9623.

Today is the official non-working day in honor of the death in the USA and UK wars. The Friday’s session has concluded negatively abroad due the galloping oil prices and the increasing inflation fears. Dow Jones went down with 1,16%, Nasdaq lost 0,81% and S&P 500 went back with 1,32%.

HSBC noted early today that will keep supporting their offer for out buying the sixts by size South Korea bank - Korea Exchange Bank for the price of 6,3 billion dollars, but in addition warned that will not expect everlastingly for the regulative management and that this could also be accepted as a test to the openness of the Asian country to foreign investments.

The CEO of Insurance australia Group Ltd. Michael Hawker resigned yesterday with the arguments that he has lost trust in some of the investors right after the company has rejected an offer for gain of 8,7 billion Australian dollars (8,3 billion USD). The resignation of Hawker is following 3 years of profit decrease while in the same time the offering company QBE Insurance Group Ltd. has achieved to duplicate their  actives. The  shares of the Insurance Australia went down with 0,3% in the beginning of today’s trade.Italian automanufacturer Fiat is communicating with their American competitor Chrysler on some alternatives for cooperation and mutual activities.

The housing price index came with lower value from the prognoses reaching -1,7% for the first quarter and relatively, -3,1% on annual basis. This is another affirmation of the negative tendency of the greenback. The economy calendar from USA for this day will be presented by the index for new housing sales, for which we expect decrease to 4,85 million dollars against the previous value - 4,93 million.

The index for the industrial orders from the eurozone noted decrease to -1,0% against the expectations of -0,5% on monthly basis and -2,5% against the prognoses of 4,8% on annual basis at the end of this year’s first quarter. This most probably will result in decrease of the economy activity in the region due the second quarter. Today interest will cause the announcement of the preliminary PMI index in the scope of services for which we expect slight decrease to 51,5 against the previous 52,0 as well as the PMI index in the scope of manufacturing, for which will not be a change from the previous value - 50,7.

The data for the retails sales in UK shown decrease of 0,2% for April, but even after this news, the pound succeed to gain some positions against the greenback due the yesterday’s session, and as a supporting factor came up the rise from the sales in the private scope. Today from the island will be released the new values of the index for revised internal gross product, for which we expect a preservation of the values to monthly 0,4% and annual basis of 2,5%.

The euro has received another support during the yesterday’s session and this came from the German IFO index for the business climate whose values went up to 103.5 on expected 102.1, and this helped to the euro to gain approximately a cent and half against the greenback. Today will be interesting the new value of the index for the industrial orders, for which we expect to shrink to levels of -0,4% on monthly and 5,2% on annual basis against the previous 0,6% and 9,9%.

The British pound got more expensive against the dollar, right after the report from the meeting of the UK Central Bank shown that the interest rates will be held at levels of 5.0%. The economy calendar for today will be presented by the retail sales for which we expect a slight decrease to -0.5% on monthly and 4.2% on annual basis against the respective values of -0,4% and 4,6%. If these values go out lower than expected it is much possible that the British Pound will take another pressure shot by the rest of the major currencies.

The reactions of the market players after the preservation of the interest rates in Japan were surprisingly quite, without any impact on the economy point of view even after the risks for the economy state were mentioned. The economy calendar for today does not offer data for the economy of the country.

With almost no data from the side of the United Kingdom, the British pound was following the rest of the currencies getting expensive with almost 2 cents against the US dollar. Today will be quite interesting the minutes from the UK Central Bank meeting, where we will more detailed data regarding the decision of holding the interest rates due April to 5.00% with 8 against 1 votes.

On the back of the strong data that was coming from USA, the euro was trying to keep the gained positions during the day, however it made a fall with close to half a cent against the greenback. The Focus of the attention for today will be attracted by the data for ZEW Germany index and taking in mind todays circumstances we expect decrease of the negative value to -35,1 against the -40,7. ZEW index of the economy expectations for the Eurozone will most probably keep the same rate of -44.7.

From Canada will be announced the data for the wholesale sales, for which we expect to grow to 0,5% on a monthly basis and 0,2% on annual against the previous values - -1,8% on annual and -1,5% on yearly basis that would support the Canadian dollar against the rest of the major currencies.

The economy calendar for today is relatively poor. From the Eurozone interest will be the data for the construction manufacturing index, for which we expect slight decrease to 1,0% against the previous 1,2% on a monthly basis and preservation of the level of 4,3% on an annual basis. In Canada the markets will remain closed and from USA will be announced the index of the leading indices for April, to which our prognoses is for shrink to -0,1% against the previous 0,1%.

The euro made a test of the 1.5600 level against the dollar, using the weak data from Friday. The euro received support by the president of the Central European Bank - Triche, who announced that will fight the inflation by creating doubts about decrease of the interest rates.

During the yesterdays session, the euro was initially supported by the growth of the internal gross product for the first quarter, that reached to 0,7% against the prognoses of 0,5% while the index of the consumer prices went down from 3,6% to 3.3%, that is kinda “confirmed signal” that the Central European Bank will hold the interest rates without change on their next meeting. However, lately today the fall in the oil prices helped the greenback recuperation and the euro has lost its gained positions.

The Japanese yen was traded to it’s lowest levels this week against the euro and the dollar, as the inconsistency of the market trades led the currency to a new bottom since February, encouraging the release of some carry trade deals

The New Zealand dollar went down for seventh day, after the government report noted shrink in the value of the retail sales for February, that showed values approximately 3 times lower than expected. This led to increase in the speculations that on the next meeting of the Australian Central Bank the interest rates will be cut.

The pound pushed up from the three months bottom against the dollar, overpassing the euro pressure as well. This is caused by the concerns in Great Britain that the prices of the manufacturers are pushing the investors expectations that the Bank of England will lower the interest rates on the next meeting scheduled for the next month.

The Japanese yen may remain under attack for a second day against the greenback, after the US shares has raised their values due rumors that the baddest part of the US mortgage crisis is over.

The economy calendar for today is relatively interesting. From UK will be released the new data for the inflation index of the consumer prices, that we expect to count a growth to 0,6% on a monthly basis against the previous 0,4% and on yearly basis we estimate 2,7%, against the previous 2,5%. The retail sales for UK we expect to increase as well with values as follows: 0,7% against 0,3%. This most probably will raise the pressure over the GBP against the rest of the major currencies. From the data that will be announced by USA, interest will cause the retails sales for April, for which we expect a decrease to -0,2% against the previous value of 0,2% and the retail sales without automobiles are expected to increase slightly to 0,2%, against the 0,1% old value. The business reserve index will be announced today as well, and our expectations are for decrease to 0,4% against the 0,6%.

The biggest energy company EnCana Corp., has announced lately yesterday their plans for reconstruction in order maximum usage of the high oil prices. The association will be divided on two parts - one for the oil and another for the nature gas.
The inflation in China has reached record levels since 1996 due constantly raising prices of food and the government restrictions against the uan. The consumer goods has raised relatively with 22% that jeopardizes the social stability before the upcoming Olympic games this summer. The analysts expect fall of the share prices on todays stock market session.
The scientific department in Motion Ltd.  has finished their work over the creation of a new BlackBerry version, targeted mainly to the business consumers, but also oriented to other target groups as well. The new smartphone is called BlackBerry Bold and it is first of its kind, capable to handle the high-speed HSDPA cell network. It has also integrated GPS, Wi-Fi and multimedia.
The biggest absence of investor trust is noted for the shares of the Indian companies on all developing market areas, after the government measures for restriction of the inflation have “hit” the profit of companies from the range of Steel Authority of India Ltd. and Grasim Industries Ltd. It seems that the traders remain doubtful - even after Sensitive Index has raised with 13% since the bottom of March. According to some analysts this is because India produces less goods for mass consumption than Russia or Brazil, the Gross Internal Product increases with slower temps than the one of China and the lack of coal, oil and iron are supporting the pressure over the inflation.
Taxpayers from Massachusetts to California are paying solid amounts to the banks of Wall Street in order to cancel their derivative contracts, going out of the bond share market. In some cases the penalty taxes are reaching up to $10 million dollars, combining with the effect of the increasing expenses of loan capital attraction procedures.

Today in the economy calendar there will be prevail of data coming from United Kingdom. The new value of the trade balance for March will be quite interesting. For this index we expect raise of the deficit to levels of -7,52 billion pounds against the data from the past month that is -7,48 billion. The other index - the one for the production prices is expected to keep it’s previous value of 1,8% at the entrance, and at the exit we estimate slight increase to 6,3% against the previous 6,2%. The release of data will increase the trade market volatility, as is obvious that the GBP will remain pressured against the rest of the major market players, in case that the announced values are below the prognoses.

From Canada will be announced the March prices for new homes, for which we expect decrease to 0,2% against the previous 0,3%.

The data from USA will be focused on the announce of the new value of the national budget. The expectations are for value shrink to 157,5 billion dollars against the previous 177,7 billion dollars, and most probably this will raise the pressure over the greenback.

Against the major European currencies, the dollar lost positions after the announced decision of the European central bank to kepp the levels of the interest rates unchanged - 4,0% for the eurozone and 5,0% for United Kingdom.

From the data available in the economy calendar for today, interest will be the new values of the unemployment level index for Canada. Our expectations are for value preservation to 6,0%. The other interesting index will be the value of the cleaned data for the labor positions, for which we expect fall to 12,3K against previous 14,6K. In case that the data comes bellow the expectations, the Canadian dollar will be pressured by the rest of the major forex trading currencies.

A growth in the foreign exchange volatility will be caused by the announcement of the US trade balance deficit for which is expected shrink to levels of -61,1 billion dollars against previously announced -62,8 billion dollars and there is a chance for the greenback to receive support in case that the new value is lower than the expected on the market.