E-Money Blog - Forex, CDF, Commodities - daily news and rates

The US dollar made new drastic losses against the major currencies ater the start if the weekly trade. The dollar reached one of the lowest levels in three weeks against the JPY. The greenback is getting cheaper and this is happening just before the government report this week which will be appointing the data for the unemployment levels and the newly occupied free work opportunities in the non-agricultural US sphere. This will result negatively in the expectations for interest rate increase by US Federal Reserve on the next meeting of the institution. The US money hace reached the three week bottom level against the euro before tomorow’s report in which we expect fall in the US production and manufacturing.

The economy calendar for today will show the Chicago business activity index for June and our expectations are for slight fall to 48,4 against 49,1 from the previous week. The euro may find support in his growth that coincides by the speculations that the report today will note higher levels of inflation caused by the record high oil prices and the consumer goods. This will give a possibility to the European Central Bank in increasing the interest rate later this year. The index of the harmonized consumer prices for the eurozaone, that will be announced today is expected to be 3,9% against the 3,6% for May and the goal of the European Central Bank is to keep the index on levels of 2%.

The British pound reached one of its lowest values since month against the euro when the government report announced data for lower economy growth than announced for the first quarter, however, later on the GBP succeeded to made a slight jump up against the dollar. Today in UK will be announced the data for the approved mortgage requests. This index probably will note a fall to 49K against the previous 58K, as well the index for monetary offer. For this index we’re experiencing slight fall to 0,4% on a monthly basis against the previous 0,6%.

A report of Citygroup for heavy losses through Q2 combined with the prices of the crude oil that reached over $140 per barrel placed the dollar under serious pressure by the major currencies. The Internal Gross Product of USA came out according to the expectations - 1.0%, however the weekly unemployment petitions were a disappointment noting a value of 384K. The housing sales during May raised surprisingly to 4.99 million dollars against the expectations for 4.93 million. Today the economy calendar of the consumer trust will offer the data for the PCE price index and our expectations are concentrated on 0.2%. The Michigan index for consumer trust will be announced as well and for it we’re expecting levels of 56,7.

Unsurprisingly the euro kicked new weekly top, when the petrol passed $140 per barrel and the gold made a rally passing over $910 per 1/3 ounce. In the business calendar for today will be announced the consumer trust for the eurozone for which we expect slight decrease to -16 against the previous -15 for June. The retails sales for germany will be shown as well and our expectations are for value of 0.5%.

The British pound noted new raise against the greenback due yesterday’s session. Today from the Island will be announced the data for the Internal Gross Product final value for the first quarter. We expect that the value for this index will be 0.4% on a monthly basis and 2,5% per year  against the previous results which are the same. The current bill for the first quarter is expected to raise the deficit to -12.1 billion pounds against the previous -8,5 billion pounds. This most probably will decrease the speed of the GBP raise.

On the yesterday’s meeting of FOMC has been taken the decision to keep the main interest rate unchanged to 2,0% and this was expected by the market players. As a result the dollar crushed drastically against the major currencies. On the report after the meeting of the institution became clear that even after the persistent concerns for fall in the economy growth of the country, they have been minimized. As a main jeopardizing factor remains the risk of inflation increase.

In a medium period it is possible that the greenback make new fall against the major currencies since the US Federal Reserve didn’t give clear data for aggressive series of interest rates lowering. The economy calendar for today’s USA actual state will show the data for the weekly unemployment requests, for which we expect a fall to 375K against the 381K from the past month as well the final data for the Internal Gross Product of the country for the first quarter for which we expect to receive new value of 1,0% against the previous 0,9%. Interest will cause the indicator for the first quarter’s consumer expenses and our expectations are for preservation of the same value of 2,1%
The euro made increase on the go against the greenback with almost a cent and half thanks to the decision of the US Federal Reserve for preservation of the interest rates. Earlier today the president of the European central Bank Jan-Claude Trichet made a statement that even after the expected raise of the interest rates on the upcoming institution meeting scheduled on 3th of July it is not  clear whether the increase of the interest rate is appropriate tool for maintaining the monetary policy.

The economical events from the eurozone will be presented by the monetary offer index for which we expect to came out with values of 10,5% against 10,7%
Икономическите събития за днес от еврозоната  ще бъдат представени от показателя за паричното предлагане, който очакваме да излезе със стойност от 10,5% спрямо предходните 10,7%.