FOREX Market - 30.04.2008 - Dollar goes up. Consumer expenses index will be released today.
The dollar went up against the rest of the major currencies during the yesterday’s session in NY yesterday due the speculations that the US Federal Reserve will probably miss new decrease of the interest rates lately today on the upcoming FOMC meeting. In case that the institution takes the decision to keep the rate unchanged we expect that the greenback will preserve the more expensive outfit against the rest of the currencies.
The economy calendar from the eurozone will show the new data for the economy expectations index, and our prognose is for slight decrease to 99,1 against the previous 99,6. The index for the business climate in the region is expected to fall too to levels of 0,77 against the previous 0,80.
Today, from the overseas indices will be interesting the values for the US gross internal product with prognoses for fall to 0,4% against the previous 0,6% as well the PMI chicago index that is expected to keep the value of 48,2.
Will be announced the value for the USA consumer expenses for the first quarter, for which we expect decrease to 0,9% from the previous 2,3%.
Increase of the market volatility in the trade with canadian dollars will be caused by the data for the industrial production prices, as we expect growth of the monthly basis of this index with 1,3% against the previous 0,1%, as well 0,3% against -0,8% annual base.
FOREX Market - 29.04.2008 - Low activity on the market. A lot of indices data will be announced.
The week started with low and range market trade for almost all currency pairs with absence of important news to drive the market forward.
From the events defined for today more interesting will be the consumer credit data from UK with expected fall to 1,3 billion GBP against the previous 2,4 billion pounds, as well as the value for the monetary offering for wich we predict preservation of the present rate of 0,8% on monthly and 12,0% on yearly basis. Pressure on the pound will be caused with the announcement of the CBI ballance for the retail sales with expectations in fall of the April value to -4 against the previous +1.
The economy calendar of USA to the end of the week offers a variety of events. For today will be released the new data for the consumer trust for which we expect decrease to 62,0 against the previous 64,5.
Tomorrow will be interesting the values of the GIP for USA. This index is expected to fall to levels of 0,4 against the previous 0,6%. Chicago’s PMI index is expected to keep the same values - around 48,2. On Thursday the focus of our attention will be attracted by the PCE index for which we expect increase of the inflation processes in the country to 0,2% against the previous 0,1% as well the index for the construction expenses - 1,0% against the previous - 0,3%.
Other interesting index will be the Non farm payrolls in the non-agricultural scope of USA, and our expectations is for preservation of the value to -80K for the unemployment petitions, for which we expect increase to 5,2% against the previous 5,1%. With this data the greenback will suffer another strikes from the major currencies.
FOREX Market - 28.04.2008 - Sligth fall of the dollar with the opening of the Asian Market.
Yesterday’s Asian session started with a slight retreat from the US dollar against the rest of the currencies. Taking in mind the poor on events day, our expectation is for low-activity currency trade with down bottom exchange.
The economy calendar for the next 5 days in USA is relatively abundant.
On Tuesday will be released the consumer trust data. For this index we await for a fall to 62,0 against the previous 64,5.
On Wednesday will be interesting the values of the USA gross internal product with prognoses for slight fall to 0,4% against the previous 0,6%. Interesting will be the PMI Chicago Index that is expected to keep the same level of 48,2. Raise in the market volatility will cause the report of FOMC, that will reflect the policy of the institution.
On Thursday the focus of the financial attention will fall on PCE index, for which we estimate a growth of the country’s inflation levels for USA to 0,2% against the previous 0,1% as well the construction expenses index with values -0,1% against the previous -0,3%.
Without any doubts, the most important events will be the data for the newly occupied labor places in the non-agricultural scope of USA, as our prognoses lay to a stable value of -80K. The level of the unemployment in the country is expected to raise reaching levels of 5,2% against the previous 5,1%. With this data the greenback will be most probably pushed to the wall, and it is quite possible to see levels like the ones from the start of the week.