E-Money Blog - Forex, CDF, Commodities - daily news and rates

At the end of the past week, the united currency (euro) has raised its value right after the announcement of the business climate index and the comments of some representatives from the Central European Bank. In the same time, the dollar lost advance and remained relatively cheap against the rest of the currencies, due the negative news from the week.

The disclosure of the Japan’s economy data didn’t result as a sufficient backup for the yen and it went down the drain against the rest of the currencies. The main reason for this appears to be the raised hunger for risk trades.

The new week is expected to be quite interesting. In total, the market will remain under the reign of the USA economy news. One of the main focuses would be the speach of Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve. His comments, as well the employment data will be the guiding forces for the market, before the expected report for the employment out of the agricultural scope. The production index ISM is expected to remain with compact values from 48,3 to 48,0 for March. The same seems valid for ISM services index, for which we estimate change of 49,3 to 49,0. New levels of employment out of the agricultural scope we expect to go down for another month with 70K, accompanied by raise of the unemployment from 4,8% to 4,9%.
From the data coming from the Eurozone, the attention will be focused on the consumer prices for March, which is expected to reach 3,3% annual basis. The PMI for production and the same for services will most probably remain unchanged and to keep their value above the 50. The labor market will remain slightly collapsed with unchanged levels of unemployment - 7,1% for February. The retails sales will keep a rate of 0,2% growth per month basis for February.

The Japanese economical calendar will attract attention with the research of Tankan of the Central Bank, that is taking place among large circle of manufacturers. We expect a slight fall of the index - from 19 to 13 pipes for the first quarter of the year.

The US dollar suffered another serious fall during the yesterday’s session, due the housing data that was announced yesterday. The sell of new houses are negative for fourth month and noted a fall of 1.8% reaching a new negative record for the last 13 years. The total value of the index is 590K. Except this data was announced also the index for long-term trades from December that is negative too - a fall of 1.7%. This seriously increases the fears from upcoming recession to which FED should answer in case that the internal gross product of the country falls unexpectedly and the consumer expenses become negative.

The euro has jumped higher than expected against the dollar and behind the euro’s back were the powerfull data for the IFO index of Germany, that continues to show high values.

Today USA will present the new data for the IGP deflater, and the expectations are that it will remain stable at levels of 2,7%, as well the final values for the IGP for the fourth quarter where the prognoses are for the same level of 0,6%. The weekly requests for non-employed are estimated to reach 362K against the previous value of 378K. In case that this index is lower than the expected values we predict slight support to the greenback.

The dollar had ups and downs on the trade market yesterday. This is a result from the fact that the major part of the markets were closed due the Easter celebrations. The only data that was announced yesterday was for the sales of existing homes in USA, that were 5.03 million dollars against the expectations of 4.85 million dollars and with previous value 4.89 million dollars, reaching this way the highest value of this index for the last seven months.

The Asian session was quite unfavorable for the greenback and resulted in fall against the major foreign currencies. The pressure of the euro reversed the quotes to 1,55 dollars per euro. The pair USD/JPY was traded on levels around 100 yen per dollar.