E-Money Blog - Forex, CDF, Commodities - daily news and rates

The greenback had tremendously volatile day reaching bottoms never seen since months against the euro, then suddenly realized solid expensiveness. The huge activation of the euro sales succeed to take with it the rest of the currencies. The data that was announced yesterday for the US economy were weak yet not disastrous and the wide expected employment in the non-agricultural area made a levels of -62K for June, that is lower than the expected -60K. Much more disturbing for the US money flow was the ISM services scope index that made a fall to 48.2 on June that related to 51.7 due May is lower than the expected value 48.5. This surprised tha market players and sent the stock market in low direction. The economy calendar for today is weak due the national celebration of 4 of July - the Independence Day and the markets will remain closed.

The euro suffered the biggest loss against the euro since two months after the neutral comments of the European Central Bank president. When the interest rate was increased to 4.25% against 4.00% the investors have been waiting for a slight note for upcoming raise, however Trichet announced that the European Central Bank do not have plans for second future increase. The economy data for the eurozone shown increase of the retails sales from 0.6% in april to 1.2% in May. Today we are waiting for the data related to the industrial orders with expectations for rise from -1.8% to 0.7%.

The GBP got pressure on it’s back when the PMI services index resulted in a bottom value not seen for 6 years and half. The value is 47.1 much below the expected 49.5.

The Japanese yen had a volatile day as well when the profits on the USD/JPY have been blocked by the sales in EUR/JPY. The weak recuperation of the stock markets was as a favor for overpassing those current lacks of interest in risk investments.

The dollar continued to loose positions against the major currencies when was announced the fall of the labor and job places in the private sector with 79K in June. The expected fall was only 20K. The data for the ADP employment index is often used to estimate the values of the non-agricultural employment, that would be announced today. The expectations for non farm payrolls for USA are focused to -53K against the previous -49K and this will be unfavorable for the pressure over the greenback. Interest will cause the the data for the unemployment level for which we expect 5,4% for June against the 5,5% from the past month. The ISM index in the scope of the services is also expected today with prognoses to 51,5 against 51,7. In his statement, the government secretary of USA Henry Paulson mentioned that for the US economy are coming hard times, however Europe is not immunized against this as well. As a result the dollar has fallen against the major currencies.

The data from the Eurozone increased the expectations for further push up of the interest rates by the European Central Bank when it came evident that the index of the manufacturing prices giving information for the inflation level has raised with more than expected - up to 1,2% on monthly and 7,1% on annual basis. This is 18 years top shot and the market players did not fall in their re-positioning in state of waiting for today’s European Central Bank decision, however the focus of the attention will fall on the press conference on which the president of the bank Trichet will give today.

In UK the construction PMI has fallen to a new bottom record for the last 11 years when reached levels of 38.8 with expectations of 43.1. In other data the incomes from the housing building reached it’s bottom level of year 2001.

The US dollar made attempt to recuperate its position against the major of the currencies due yesterday’s session and its raise was the only since 5 days due speculations that the biggest dollar fall from the middle of March is already depleted and no longer a thread. The data from USA that is in today’s economy calendar will present the ISM manufacture index, as our expectations is oriented to slight fall to -0,6% against the previous -0,4%. In case that the announce of the negative data is close to the prognoses the greenback will get another pressure point onto itself.

The British pound is moving up to higher values against the dollar during yesterday’s European session. The GBP tested the zone around $1,9950 and lately found supporter levels of $1,9800. This is the biggest jump of the currency since 2008 of April. The data that was announced from the UK is pointing that the Internal Gross Product of the country has grown with 0,3% on a monthly basis differently than the previous values of 0,4% from the past month. This is a indication for slowed down economical growth of the Island. The data for today will show also the new values of the housing price index and the expectations are for -0,9% against the -2,5% on monthly basis, as well the CIPS index in the scope of the manufacture, that will probably note a slight decrease to 49,0 against the previous value.